What to Expect from Tech Stocks This Week March 17–23, 2025

Gamma Sigma Capital delivers an in-depth forecast for the technology sector during the week of March 17–23, 2025, a period poised to be a critical inflection point for tech stocks. With Nvidia’s GPU Technology Conference (GTC) underway, the Federal Reserve’s latest monetary policy decision looming, and key economic data releases scheduled, this week promises heightened volatility and potential catalysts. Our analysis suggests a mixed outlook: AI-driven optimism could propel select stocks higher, while macroeconomic uncertainties and trade policy headwinds may exert downward pressure. This report examines the key drivers, sector trends, and strategic implications for institutional and individual investors navigating this dynamic landscape.

A Pivotal Week for Tech Stocks. What to Expect from Tech Stocks This Week March 17–23, 2025

As of March 17, 2025, the technology sector stands at a crossroads. The year has begun with significant turbulence—AI enthusiasm has waned, tariff-related disruptions have intensified, and the Nasdaq Composite has slipped into correction territory with a 10.4% year-to-date decline as of mid-March.

Yet, this week offers a confluence of high-impact events that could either stabilize or further unsettle the market. Nvidia’s GTC, kicking off today, promises to spotlight AI innovation, while the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on March 18–19 could shape interest rate expectations for the remainder of 2025. Coupled with economic data releases and ongoing trade war developments, these factors position March 17–23 as a defining period for tech equities.

At Gamma Sigma Capital, our research team has synthesized market data, event schedules, and sector performance to provide this actionable outlook.

Tech’s Volatile Start to 2025

The technology sector entered 2025 with lofty expectations following a robust 2024, driven by AI breakthroughs and semiconductor demand. However, the first quarter has proven challenging.

The Nasdaq Composite’s 10.4% decline reflects a broader correction, with the S&P 500 down 6.1% and the Dow off 4.1% year-to-date as of March 14. This pullback stems from multiple pressures: a hawkish Federal Reserve stance in December 2024, President Trump’s tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China (effective early March), and softening demand in key segments like electric vehicles (EVs). Despite a sharp rally on March 14—led by Nvidia and Palantir—weekly losses persist, with the Nasdaq down 2.4% and the S&P 500 off 2.3% for the week ending March 14.

This volatility sets the stage for a week where tech stocks could either rebound or face further strain.

Key Drivers for March 17–23, 2025

• Nvidia’s GPU Technology Conference (GTC): March 17–21

  
  

  The week begins with Nvidia’s GTC, a flagship event running from March 17–21, with CEO Jensen Huang’s keynote address scheduled for Tuesday, March 18. Dubbed the “Woodstock of AI,” GTC is expected to unveil advancements in Nvidia’s AI chip lineup, potentially including the Blackwell Ultra GB300 series, which promises enhanced performance for generative AI applications. Nvidia, down over 20% from its recent highs and in bear market territory, could see a catalyst if the conference exceeds expectations. A successful event may lift not only Nvidia ($NVDA) but also peers like Broadcom, AMD, and Palantir, which benefit from AI ecosystem growth. Conversely, underwhelming reveals or cautious guidance could deepen the stock’s volatile run, dragging sentiment across the semiconductor space.

• Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting: March 18–19

  
  

  The Fed’s two-day meeting, concluding Wednesday, March 19, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference, is a linchpin for tech stocks. After a modest 25-basis-point rate cut in December 2024 and a hawkish 2025 outlook, consensus anticipates rates will hold steady at 4.25–4.5%. However, investors will parse Powell’s remarks for clues on future policy. The CME FedWatch Tool now projects a 75% chance of three quarter-point cuts in 2025, up from two previously, reflecting softening economic signals. A dovish tilt could bolster tech valuations, which thrive in low-rate environments, while a reaffirmation of caution might pressure high-growth names like Tesla and Apple, already grappling with tariff costs and valuation concerns.

• Economic Data Releases: A Packed Calendar

  
  

  This week’s economic data slate could sway investor sentiment toward tech stocks, particularly those tied to consumer spending and industrial activity:

• Monday, March 17: Empire State Manufacturing Index (8:30 a.m.) and Retail Sales (8:30 a.m.) offer early reads on industrial and consumer health. Strong retail sales could lift Amazon and Apple, while weak figures might heighten recession fears.

• Tuesday, March 18: Housing Starts and Building Permits (8:30 a.m.), alongside Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization (9:15 a.m.), will gauge economic momentum. Robust data may stabilize tech sentiment; softness could amplify tariff-related unease.

• Thursday, March 20: Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 a.m.) and Existing Home Sales (8:30 a.m.) will test labor and housing market resilience, critical as Trump’s workforce reduction policies unfold.

• Friday, March 21: No major releases, but markets will digest the week’s cumulative data alongside GTC and FOMC outcomes.

  
  

  These releases, while not tech-specific, influence the broader risk appetite that drives the sector.

• Trade Policy and Tariff Fallout

  
  

  President Trump’s tariffs—imposed on Canada, Mexico, and China in early March—continue to reverberate. Retaliatory measures from Canada and China, coupled with Mexico’s pending response, threaten supply chain disruptions for tech giants like Apple ( reliant on Chinese manufacturing) and Tesla (facing a 50% year-over-year sales drop in China for February). This week, investors will monitor for updates on tariff negotiations or escalations, which could either alleviate or exacerbate cost pressures. A resolution, however unlikely, could spark a relief rally; further tensions might deepen the sector’s correction.

• Earnings Spotlight: Selective Catalysts

  
  

  While not a peak earnings week, several notable tech-related firms report results:

• Wednesday, March 19: General Mills (non-tech but consumer-adjacent) may signal spending trends affecting Amazon.

• Thursday, March 20: Micron Technology ($MU) and FedEx provide insights into semiconductor demand and logistics, respectively. Micron’s outlook could influence Nvidia and AMD, while FedEx’s guidance may reflect e-commerce health impacting Amazon.

  
  

  These reports, though limited, offer incremental data points for a sector in flux.

Sector Trends and Sentiment

The tech sector’s 2025 narrative hinges on AI, tariffs, and macroeconomic shifts:

• AI Optimism vs. Reality: Nvidia’s GTC could rekindle AI enthusiasm, but the Nasdaq’s 11% plunge over the past seven weeks suggests investor fatigue. Palantir, flat year-to-date despite tripling in value over 12 months, exemplifies this dichotomy.

• Magnificent Seven Divergence: Among the tech titans, Tesla (-43% YTD) and Apple (pressured by delayed AI features) lag, while Nvidia’s volatility masks a 47% Q4 2024 revenue surge. Amazon and Microsoft hold steadier, buoyed by cloud and e-commerce resilience.

• Correction Territory: The Nasdaq’s 4.9% weekly drop (as of March 14) and the S&P 500’s 4.3% decline signal a broader reassessment of growth stocks, tempered by Friday’s Nvidia-led rally (+2.61% for Nasdaq).

Stocks to Watch

• Nvidia ($NVDA): GTC could drive a breakout above $800 or a retreat to $600 if guidance disappoints.

• Tesla ($TSLA): Tariff woes and China sales data may push it below $200, though Morgan Stanley’s $430 AI-driven target offers long-term hope.

• Apple ($AAPL): Retail sales strength could lift it toward $230; tariff costs may cap gains.

• Micron ($MU): Thursday’s earnings could signal semiconductor recovery or further softness.

• Palantir ($PLTR): AI momentum from GTC might offset its high valuation risks (P/E ~85).

Volatility Meets Opportunity

For March 17–23, we project*:

• Bullish Case: Strong GTC reveals, dovish Fed signals, and robust data could lift the Nasdaq 3–5%, with AI leaders gaining 5–10%.

• Bearish Case: Disappointing GTC, hawkish Fed tone, or weak economic prints might push the Nasdaq into a bear market (-20% from highs), with losses of 3–5%.

• Base Case: Choppy trading with a slight upward bias (+1–2% for Nasdaq), as GTC optimism offsets tariff and Fed uncertainty.

Portfolio Recommendations*

• Tactical Positioning: Overweight AI leaders (Nvidia, AMD) pre-GTC; trim post-event if gains materialize.

• Risk Management: Hedge via Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) puts or VIX calls to guard against downside surprises.

• Opportunistic Buys: Target oversold names (Tesla, Intel) if data supports a rebound.

• Diversification: Allocate to defensive sectors (utilities, healthcare) to buffer tech volatility.

Final word: A Week of High Stakes

The week of March 17–23, 2025, will test the tech sector’s resilience. Nvidia’s GTC and the Fed’s decision could either reignite growth momentum or deepen the correction, with economic data and trade policy as wild cards. At Gamma Sigma Capital, we remain committed to providing rigorous, forward-looking analysis to guide your investment decisions. Subscribe to our newsletter for real-time updates and strategic insights as this critical week unfolds.

*Disclaimers apply.

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